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Cup · Bulgaria
Vihren vs Lokomotiv Sofia prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Vihren host Lokomotiv Sofia in the Cup (Bulgaria) on 17 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Vihren 1–2 Lokomotiv Sofia.
Going into the match, Vihren had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 24 and conceding 9. Lokomotiv Sofia had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Vihren's last 10 and 8 of Lokomotiv Sofia's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Vihren averaged 2.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Lokomotiv Sofia averaged 1.50 scored and 1.70 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.38 goals from Vihren and 1.77 from Lokomotiv Sofia. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 46%, against 21%, 26% and 53% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Vihren (green) and Lokomotiv Sofia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vihren | LWWLW | 2.40 | 0.90 | 50% | 50% |
| Lokomotiv Sofia | DWLDL | 1.10 | 1.80 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 74% | 1.24 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.56 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia Win | 53% | 1.75 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Cup matches that day
- Beroe vs Ludogorets · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Septemvri Sofia · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 - Marek vs Cherno More Varna · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70 - Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Hebar 1918 · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals - Rilski Sportist vs Dunav Ruse · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.28 · FT 2–3