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Cup · Bulgaria
Marek vs Cherno More Varna prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Marek host Cherno More Varna in the Cup (Bulgaria) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Marek 0–3 Cherno More Varna.
Going into the match, Marek had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 11. Cherno More Varna had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Marek's last 10 and 6 of Cherno More Varna's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Marek averaged 2.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Cherno More Varna averaged 0.54 scored and 1.62 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.82 goals from Marek and 1.57 from Cherno More Varna. From that it rates a home win at 18%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 54%, against 12%, 17% and 71% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 43%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Marek (green) and Cherno More Varna (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marek | WWDLW | 1.60 | 1.10 | 30% | 60% |
| Cherno More Varna | LLWDD | 1.10 | 2.20 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna Win | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.54 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.73 |
| Cherno More Varna HT & FT | 46% | 2.05 |
| 1-2 | 11% | 9.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Cup matches that day
- Beroe vs Ludogorets · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Septemvri Sofia · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 - Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Hebar 1918 · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals - Rilski Sportist vs Dunav Ruse · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.28 · FT 2–3 - Vihren vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 17 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 1–2