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Cup · Bulgaria
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Septemvri Sofia prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa host Septemvri Sofia in the Cup (Bulgaria) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.90, which the bookmaker market rated at about 50% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1–1 Septemvri Sofia.
Going into the match, Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Septemvri Sofia had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa's last 10 and 5 of Septemvri Sofia's last 10; 3 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa averaged 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Septemvri Sofia averaged 0.91 scored and 1.27 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.70 goals from Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa and 1.75 from Septemvri Sofia. From that it rates a home win at 13%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 62%, against 22%, 23% and 55% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (green) and Septemvri Sofia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | DWDWD | 1.00 | 0.60 | 30% | 30% |
| Septemvri Sofia | LLLLD | 0.90 | 2.00 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.39 |
| Septemvri Sofia Win | 54% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
| Septemvri Sofia HT & FT | 40% | 2.38 |
| 0-1 | 14% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Cup matches that day
- Beroe vs Ludogorets · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Marek vs Cherno More Varna · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70 - Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Hebar 1918 · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals - Rilski Sportist vs Dunav Ruse · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.28 · FT 2–3 - Vihren vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 17 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 1–2