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Cup · Bulgaria
Rilski Sportist vs Dunav Ruse prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Rilski Sportist host Dunav Ruse in the Cup (Bulgaria) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Dunav Ruse to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Rilski Sportist 2–3 Dunav Ruse.
Going into the match, Rilski Sportist had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 6. Dunav Ruse had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Rilski Sportist's last 10 and 7 of Dunav Ruse's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Rilski Sportist averaged 1.06 goals scored and 0.88 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Dunav Ruse averaged 1.21 scored and 1.50 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.95 goals from Rilski Sportist and 1.65 from Dunav Ruse. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 52%, against 25%, 25% and 50% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Rilski Sportist (green) and Dunav Ruse (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rilski Sportist | DWWWW | 1.60 | 0.60 | 50% | 50% |
| Dunav Ruse | WDLDL | 1.20 | 1.70 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 69% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.42 |
| Dunav Ruse Win | 52% | 1.85 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.78 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.85 |
| Dunav Ruse HT & FT | 32% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Cup matches that day
- Beroe vs Ludogorets · 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa vs Septemvri Sofia · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 - Marek vs Cherno More Varna · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.70 - Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Hebar 1918 · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals - Vihren vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 17 Oct 2026, 09:00 UTC · Cup
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 1–2