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VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid prediction and preview
20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
VfB Stuttgart host Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League (International) on 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atletico Madrid.
Going into the match, VfB Stuttgart had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 11. Atletico Madrid had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of VfB Stuttgart's last 10 and 5 of Atletico Madrid's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home VfB Stuttgart averaged 2.64 goals scored and 0.82 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Atletico Madrid averaged 1.50 scored and 1.56 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.98 goals from VfB Stuttgart and 1.01 from Atletico Madrid. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 18%, against 29%, 25% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between VfB Stuttgart (green) and Atletico Madrid (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | LWWWW | 2.20 | 1.10 | 40% | 70% |
| Atletico Madrid | WWWWW | 2.00 | 1.00 | 50% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 65% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- VfB Stuttgart form and statistics
- Atletico Madrid form and statistics
- UEFA Champions League statistics
Other UEFA Champions League matches that day
- AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.80 · FT 4–0 - FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
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Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 4–3 - Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.53 · FT 4–2 - Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha · 20 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 2–2 - Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund · 20 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.75 · FT 1–2