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UEFA Champions League · International
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven prediction and preview
20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Porto host PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League (International) on 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FC Porto 0–1 PSV Eindhoven.
Going into the match, FC Porto had won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 10. PSV Eindhoven had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 26 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of FC Porto's last 10 and 8 of PSV Eindhoven's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Porto averaged 1.42 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 12 matches; away from home PSV Eindhoven averaged 2.44 scored and 1.33 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.88 goals from FC Porto and 1.25 from PSV Eindhoven. From that it rates a home win at 51%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 24%, against 60%, 21% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Porto (green) and PSV Eindhoven (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | LWWWW | 2.30 | 1.00 | 60% | 70% |
| PSV Eindhoven | LLWLW | 2.60 | 1.20 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| FC Porto Win | 60% | 1.55 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Champions League matches that day
- AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.80 · FT 4–0 - Liverpool vs Villarreal · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 4–3 - Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.67 · FT 5–1 - Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 4–3 - Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.53 · FT 4–2 - VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha · 20 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 2–2 - Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund · 20 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.75 · FT 1–2