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UEFA Champions League · International
Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction and preview
20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Liverpool host Villarreal in the UEFA Champions League (International) on 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Liverpool 4–3 Villarreal.
Going into the match, Liverpool had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 13. Villarreal had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Liverpool's last 10 and 7 of Villarreal's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Liverpool averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.40 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Villarreal averaged 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.56 goals from Liverpool and 1.50 from Villarreal. From that it rates a home win at 60%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 21%, against 61%, 22% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Liverpool (green) and Villarreal (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | WWLWW | 2.00 | 1.30 | 60% | 70% |
| Villarreal | DWLWW | 1.60 | 1.50 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 79% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Liverpool Win | 62% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Champions League matches that day
- AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.80 · FT 4–0 - FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 0–1 - Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.67 · FT 5–1 - Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 4–3 - Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.53 · FT 4–2 - VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid · 20 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Praha · 20 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 2–2 - Sabah FA vs Borussia Dortmund · 20 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.75 · FT 1–2