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Serie A · Italy
Udinese vs AC Milan prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Udinese host AC Milan in the Serie A (Italy) on 25 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Udinese had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 18. AC Milan had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Udinese's last 10 and 5 of AC Milan's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Udinese averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.21 conceded across 14 matches; away from home AC Milan averaged 1.58 scored and 1.50 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from Udinese and 1.65 from AC Milan. From that it rates a home win at 23%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 50%, against 19%, 26% and 55% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Udinese (green) and AC Milan (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Apr 2026 · AC Milan 0–3 Udinese
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| AC Milan Win | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Lecce vs Juventus · 25 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Juventus Win @ 1.48 - Atalanta vs Frosinone · 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - Genoa vs Venezia · 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.28 - Inter vs Fiorentina · 25 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44