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Serie A · Italy
Inter vs Fiorentina prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Inter host Fiorentina in the Serie A (Italy) on 25 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Inter had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 24 and conceding 14. Fiorentina had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Inter's last 10 and 7 of Fiorentina's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Inter averaged 2.58 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Fiorentina averaged 1.30 scored and 2.10 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.47 goals from Inter and 1.06 from Fiorentina. From that it rates a home win at 67%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 14%, against 70%, 18% and 12% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Inter (green) and Fiorentina (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | WWLWW | 2.40 | 1.40 | 60% | 70% |
| Fiorentina | LLDWW | 1.60 | 1.90 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Inter Win | 70% | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 54% | 1.80 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.