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Ligue 1 · France
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Toulouse host Estac Troyes in the Ligue 1 (France) on 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Toulouse had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 15. Estac Troyes had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Toulouse's last 10 and 6 of Estac Troyes's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Toulouse averaged 1.22 goals scored and 1.78 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Estac Troyes averaged 1.50 scored and 1.20 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.91 goals from Toulouse and 1.09 from Estac Troyes. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 20%, against 57%, 24% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Toulouse (green) and Estac Troyes (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | WDWDL | 1.60 | 1.50 | 70% | 70% |
| Estac Troyes | LLDLL | 0.90 | 2.00 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 80% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Toulouse Win | 59% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 1 matches that day
- Angers vs Lorient · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.33 - Auxerre vs Le Mans · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Marseille vs Le Havre · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Rennes vs Strasbourg · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Monaco vs Lille · 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40