Home › League stats › Ligue 1 › Monaco vs Lille
Ligue 1 · France
Monaco vs Lille prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Monaco host Lille in the Ligue 1 (France) on 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Monaco had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 8. Lille had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Monaco's last 10 and 6 of Lille's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Monaco averaged 2.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Lille averaged 1.82 scored and 1.18 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.81 goals from Monaco and 1.13 from Lille. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 23%, against 46%, 28% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Monaco (green) and Lille (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 May 2026 · Monaco 0–1 Lille
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 1 matches that day
- Angers vs Lorient · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.33 - Auxerre vs Le Mans · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Marseille vs Le Havre · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Rennes vs Strasbourg · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Toulouse vs Estac Troyes · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53