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Ligue 1 · France
Marseille vs Le Havre prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Marseille host Le Havre in the Ligue 1 (France) on 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Marseille had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 16. Le Havre had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Marseille's last 10 and 6 of Le Havre's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Marseille averaged 1.82 goals scored and 1.45 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Le Havre averaged 1.10 scored and 1.20 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.53 goals from Marseille and 1.08 from Le Havre. From that it rates a home win at 46%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 26%, against 61%, 21% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 49%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Marseille (green) and Le Havre (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 May 2026 · Le Havre 0–1 Marseille
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Marseille Win | 61% | 1.55 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 1 matches that day
- Angers vs Lorient · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.33 - Auxerre vs Le Mans · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Rennes vs Strasbourg · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Toulouse vs Estac Troyes · 25 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Monaco vs Lille · 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40