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Liga MX · Mexico
Toluca vs Club Tijuana prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Toluca host Club Tijuana in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 22 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Toluca 2–2 Club Tijuana.
Going into the match, Toluca had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 14. Club Tijuana had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Toluca's last 10 and 6 of Club Tijuana's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Toluca averaged 2.21 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 19 matches; away from home Club Tijuana averaged 1.00 scored and 1.55 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.90 goals from Toluca and 1.11 from Club Tijuana. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 21%, against 74%, 16% and 10% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Toluca (green) and Club Tijuana (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | DLLDL | 2.30 | 1.40 | 60% | 60% |
| Club Tijuana | DDLDL | 1.20 | 1.70 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Toluca Win | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.70 |
| Toluca 1st Half Win | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
| Toluca HT & FT | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga MX matches that day
- CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul · 22 Oct 2026, 03:10 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 1–2 - Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 22 Oct 2026, 03:10 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 · FT 2–0 - Atlas vs Club America · 22 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–5 - Puebla vs Monterrey · 22 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–4