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Liga MX · Mexico
CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 03:10 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
CF Pachuca host Cruz Azul in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 22 Oct 2026, 03:10 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: CF Pachuca 1–2 Cruz Azul.
Going into the match, CF Pachuca had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 13. Cruz Azul had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of CF Pachuca's last 10 and 5 of Cruz Azul's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home CF Pachuca averaged 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Cruz Azul averaged 1.79 scored and 1.71 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.57 goals from CF Pachuca and 1.60 from Cruz Azul. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 38%, against 31%, 26% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between CF Pachuca (green) and Cruz Azul (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Pachuca | LDLDW | 1.60 | 1.30 | 60% | 50% |
| Cruz Azul | WDDLL | 2.00 | 1.70 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga MX matches that day
- Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 22 Oct 2026, 03:10 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 · FT 2–0 - Atlas vs Club America · 22 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–5 - Puebla vs Monterrey · 22 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–4 - Toluca vs Club Tijuana · 22 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 2–2