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Liga MX · Mexico
Puebla vs Monterrey prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Puebla host Monterrey in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 22 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Puebla 1–4 Monterrey.
Going into the match, Puebla had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 13. Monterrey had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Puebla's last 10 and 7 of Monterrey's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Puebla averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Monterrey averaged 1.25 scored and 1.58 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.25 goals from Puebla and 1.88 from Monterrey. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 51%, against 24%, 25% and 51% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Puebla (green) and Monterrey (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 22 Apr 2026 · Monterrey 2–1 Puebla
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance X2 | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga MX matches that day
- CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul · 22 Oct 2026, 03:10 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 1–2 - Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 22 Oct 2026, 03:10 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 · FT 2–0 - Atlas vs Club America · 22 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–5 - Toluca vs Club Tijuana · 22 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 2–2