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Liga MX · Mexico
Tigres UANL vs Leon prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Tigres UANL host Leon in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 21 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Tigres UANL 0–2 Leon.
Going into the match, Tigres UANL had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Leon had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Tigres UANL's last 10 and 6 of Leon's last 10; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Tigres UANL averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.77 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Leon averaged 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.07 goals from Tigres UANL and 1.29 from Leon. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 40%, against 46%, 27% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 49%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Tigres UANL (green) and Leon (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | DWWLD | 1.00 | 0.90 | 50% | 20% |
| Leon | LDWDW | 1.50 | 1.40 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 48% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga MX matches that day
- Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro · 21 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–1 - FC Juarez vs Atlante FC · 21 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1 - Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa · 21 Oct 2026, 00:07 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.57 · FT 1–0