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Liga MX · Mexico
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 00:07 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Guadalajara Chivas host Necaxa in the Liga MX (Mexico) on 21 Oct 2026, 00:07 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Necaxa.
Going into the match, Guadalajara Chivas had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 9. Necaxa had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Guadalajara Chivas's last 10 and 8 of Necaxa's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Guadalajara Chivas averaged 1.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Necaxa averaged 1.38 scored and 2.08 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.71 goals from Guadalajara Chivas and 0.79 from Necaxa. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 16%, against 69%, 18% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 46%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Guadalajara Chivas (green) and Necaxa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | DDWLD | 1.90 | 0.90 | 50% | 40% |
| Necaxa | LDLLL | 1.20 | 2.10 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 Apr 2026 · Necaxa 0–0 Guadalajara Chivas
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Guadalajara Chivas Win | 69% | 1.38 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Guadalajara Chivas HT & FT | 50% | 1.95 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga MX matches that day
- Tigres UANL vs Leon · 21 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 · FT 0–2 - Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro · 21 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 2–1 - FC Juarez vs Atlante FC · 21 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga MX
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–1