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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Real Avilés vs UD Ourense prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Real Avilés host UD Ourense in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Real Avilés 3–0 UD Ourense.
Going into the match, Real Avilés had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 13. UD Ourense had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Real Avilés's last 10 and 3 of UD Ourense's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Real Avilés averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded across 7 matches; away from home UD Ourense averaged 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.63 goals from Real Avilés and 0.84 from UD Ourense. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 18%, against 49%, 27% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Real Avilés (green) and UD Ourense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Avilés | WLDDW | 1.80 | 1.30 | 70% | 50% |
| UD Ourense | WDDLL | 0.80 | 1.10 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.20 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Real Avilés Win | 49% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Real Avilés form and statistics
- UD Ourense form and statistics
- Primera División RFEF - Group 1 statistics
Other Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches that day
- UD Logroñés vs Cultural Leonesa · 18 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Pontevedra vs Cacereño · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–4 - CD Coria vs Athletic Club II · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1