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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Arenas Getxo vs Mérida AD prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arenas Getxo host Mérida AD in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Arenas Getxo 0–4 Mérida AD.
Going into the match, Arenas Getxo had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 24. Mérida AD had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Arenas Getxo's last 10 and 4 of Mérida AD's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arenas Getxo averaged 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Mérida AD averaged 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.27 goals from Arenas Getxo and 2.30 from Mérida AD. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 60%, against 33%, 27% and 40% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Arenas Getxo (green) and Mérida AD (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenas Getxo | LDLLL | 0.60 | 2.40 | 50% | 60% |
| Mérida AD | WWLLL | 1.30 | 1.80 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 Apr 2026 · Arenas Getxo 2–0 Mérida AD
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Arenas Getxo form and statistics
- Mérida AD form and statistics
- Primera División RFEF - Group 1 statistics
Other Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches that day
- UD Logroñés vs Cultural Leonesa · 18 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Real Avilés vs UD Ourense · 18 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 3–0 - Pontevedra vs Cacereño · 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.44 - CD Coria vs Athletic Club II · 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1