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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Piratas vs Tepatitlán prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Piratas host Tepatitlán in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Piratas Win — Piratas to win. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Piratas 3–0 Tepatitlán.
Going into the match, Piratas had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 14. Tepatitlán had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 30 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Piratas's last 10 and 5 of Tepatitlán's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Piratas averaged 2.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Tepatitlán averaged 0.40 scored and 2.50 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.92 goals from Piratas and 0.55 from Tepatitlán. From that it rates a home win at 85%, a draw at 12% and an away win at 4%, against 75%, 15% and 9% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 85%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Piratas (green) and Tepatitlán (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piratas | LWLWD | 1.70 | 1.40 | 50% | 60% |
| Tepatitlán | LDWLL | 0.90 | 3.00 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Piratas Win | 78% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.23 |
| Piratas HT & FT | 61% | 1.57 |
| Piratas 1st Half Win | 59% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| 3-0 | 11% | 8.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga de Expansión MX matches that day
- Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca · 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Liga de Expansión MX
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–2 - Durango vs Tapatío · 18 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC · Liga de Expansión MX
Published pick: Double Chance X2 · FT 5–0 - Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero · 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga de Expansión MX
Published pick: Monarcas Win @ 1.50 - Cancún vs Venados FC · 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC · Liga de Expansión MX
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.51 · FT 1–1