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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Leones Negros UDG host Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Leones Negros UDG 1–2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
Going into the match, Leones Negros UDG had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 15. Alebrijes de Oaxaca had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Leones Negros UDG's last 10 and 5 of Alebrijes de Oaxaca's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Leones Negros UDG averaged 2.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Alebrijes de Oaxaca averaged 1.00 scored and 2.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.89 goals from Leones Negros UDG and 0.78 from Alebrijes de Oaxaca. From that it rates a home win at 80%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 7%, against 68%, 19% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Leones Negros UDG (green) and Alebrijes de Oaxaca (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leones Negros UDG | DWWLD | 2.20 | 1.50 | 80% | 70% |
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca | WLLLW | 1.00 | 1.80 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 76% | 1.21 |
| Leones Negros UDG Win | 69% | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 57% | 1.66 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.68 |
| Leones Negros UDG HT & FT | 49% | 1.95 |
| 3-0 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Leones Negros UDG form and statistics
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca form and statistics
- Liga de Expansión MX statistics
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