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Premier League · England
Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Newcastle host Aston Villa in the Premier League (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa.
Going into the match, Newcastle had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 18. Aston Villa had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Newcastle's last 10 and 6 of Aston Villa's last 10; 7 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Newcastle averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.55 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Aston Villa averaged 1.84 scored and 1.37 conceded across 19.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.29 goals from Newcastle and 2.15 from Aston Villa. From that it rates a home win at 22%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 56%, against 42%, 26% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Newcastle (green) and Aston Villa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | LWLWD | 1.60 | 1.80 | 80% | 70% |
| Aston Villa | WDWWW | 2.10 | 1.50 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 80% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premier League matches that day
- Brentford vs Liverpool · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 1–2 - Fulham vs Hull City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–0 - Manchester City vs Ipswich · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Manchester City Win @ 1.25 - Everton vs Chelsea · 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50