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Premier League · England
Everton vs Chelsea prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Everton host Chelsea in the Premier League (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Everton 0–2 Chelsea.
Going into the match, Everton had won 5, drawn 5 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 7. Chelsea had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 29 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Everton's last 10 and 8 of Chelsea's last 10; 4 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Everton averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Chelsea averaged 1.29 scored and 2.29 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.51 goals from Everton and 1.58 from Chelsea. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 39%, against 31%, 25% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Everton (green) and Chelsea (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premier League matches that day
- Newcastle vs Aston Villa · 17 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Brentford vs Liverpool · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 1–2 - Fulham vs Hull City · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–0 - Manchester City vs Ipswich · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Manchester City Win @ 1.25