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National League - North · England
Merthyr Town vs King's Lynn Town prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Merthyr Town host King's Lynn Town in the National League - North (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Merthyr Town 1–1 King's Lynn Town.
Going into the match, Merthyr Town had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 11. King's Lynn Town had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Merthyr Town's last 10 and 5 of King's Lynn Town's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Merthyr Town averaged 1.92 goals scored and 1.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home King's Lynn Town averaged 1.44 scored and 1.56 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.59 goals from Merthyr Town and 1.10 from King's Lynn Town. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 25%, against 40%, 27% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | DLLDD | 0.90 | 1.10 | 70% | 30% |
| King's Lynn Town | WWLWL | 2.10 | 1.40 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Merthyr Town form and statistics
- King's Lynn Town form and statistics
- National League - North statistics
Other National League - North matches that day
- AFC Telford United vs Darlington 1883 · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 - Buxton vs Worksop Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 2–2 - Hednesford Town vs Brackley Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 3–2 - Southport vs Radcliffe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 - Hebburn Town vs Scarborough Athletic · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–2