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National League - North · England
Hednesford Town vs Brackley Town prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Hednesford Town host Brackley Town in the National League - North (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Hednesford Town 3–2 Brackley Town.
Going into the match, Hednesford Town had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 12. Brackley Town had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Hednesford Town's last 10 and 5 of Brackley Town's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Hednesford Town averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Brackley Town averaged 0.70 scored and 2.00 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.77 goals from Hednesford Town and 0.91 from Brackley Town. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 18%, against 49%, 26% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hednesford Town | WWLLW | 1.50 | 1.20 | 70% | 50% |
| Brackley Town | WLWDW | 1.10 | 1.80 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.80 |
| Hednesford Town Win | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Hednesford Town form and statistics
- Brackley Town form and statistics
- National League - North statistics
Other National League - North matches that day
- AFC Telford United vs Darlington 1883 · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 - Buxton vs Worksop Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 · FT 2–2 - Merthyr Town vs King's Lynn Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 1–1 - Southport vs Radcliffe · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 - Hebburn Town vs Scarborough Athletic · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · National League - North
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–2