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Premier League · England
Manchester United vs Bournemouth prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Manchester United host Bournemouth in the Premier League (England) on 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Manchester United had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 17. Bournemouth had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Manchester United's last 10 and 5 of Bournemouth's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Manchester United averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Bournemouth averaged 1.82 scored and 1.73 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.58 goals from Manchester United and 1.79 from Bournemouth. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 42%, against 43%, 27% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Manchester United (green) and Bournemouth (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | LDLDD | 1.70 | 1.70 | 70% | 50% |
| Bournemouth | WWWLL | 2.00 | 1.20 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premier League matches that day
- Sunderland vs Leeds · 25 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.36 - Crystal Palace vs Newcastle · 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Hull City vs Brentford · 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Liverpool vs Brighton · 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44