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Premier League · England
Manchester City vs Brighton prediction and preview
31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Manchester City host Brighton in the Premier League (England) on 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Manchester City had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 29 and conceding 14. Brighton had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 25 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Manchester City's last 10 and 3 of Brighton's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Manchester City averaged 2.67 goals scored and 1.27 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Brighton averaged 1.64 scored and 1.45 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.52 goals from Manchester City and 1.47 from Brighton. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 36%, against 57%, 23% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Manchester City (green) and Brighton (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | DLWWL | 2.90 | 1.40 | 60% | 80% |
| Brighton | DLDWW | 2.50 | 0.70 | 30% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 28 Oct 2026 · Manchester City 2–2 Brighton
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| Manchester City Win | 58% | 1.65 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Premier League matches that day
- Aston Villa vs Fulham · 31 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Tottenham vs Crystal Palace · 31 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Tottenham Win @ 1.50 - Bournemouth vs Leeds · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 - Brentford vs Nottingham Forest · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Coventry vs Sunderland · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.70 - Hull City vs Ipswich · 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 - Chelsea vs Manchester United · 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Premier League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53