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Liga Leumit · Israel
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth vs Hapoel Kfar Saba prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth host Hapoel Kfar Saba in the Liga Leumit (Israel) on 16 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0–4 Hapoel Kfar Saba.
Going into the match, Maccabi Ahi Nazareth had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 9 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 13. Hapoel Kfar Saba had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 26 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Maccabi Ahi Nazareth's last 9 and 6 of Hapoel Kfar Saba's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Maccabi Ahi Nazareth averaged 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Hapoel Kfar Saba averaged 1.80 scored and 1.90 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.39 goals from Maccabi Ahi Nazareth and 1.97 from Hapoel Kfar Saba. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 50%, against 39%, 26% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Maccabi Ahi Nazareth (green) and Hapoel Kfar Saba (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | WLLWD | 1.11 | 1.44 | 56% | 56% |
| Hapoel Kfar Saba | LLLLW | 1.30 | 2.60 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga Leumit matches that day
- Hapoel Afula vs Maccabi Herzliya · 16 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Liga Leumit
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 0–0 - Kiryat Yam SC vs Kafr Qasim · 16 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Liga Leumit
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–1 - Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa vs Ironi Modi'in · 16 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Liga Leumit
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 0–2 - Ashdod vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat · 16 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Liga Leumit
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 · FT 0–0