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Ligue 1 · France
Lyon vs Nice prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lyon host Nice in the Ligue 1 (France) on 18 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lyon 2–1 Nice.
Going into the match, Lyon had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 10. Nice had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Lyon's last 10 and 3 of Nice's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lyon averaged 2.85 goals scored and 1.54 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Nice averaged 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.40 goals from Lyon and 0.90 from Nice. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 23%, against 54%, 24% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lyon (green) and Nice (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 1 matches that day
- Le Havre vs Auxerre · 18 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 1–3 - Lorient vs Monaco · 18 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.28 - Paris FC vs Rennes · 18 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 4–3 - Angers vs Marseille · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.53