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Ligue 1 · France
Angers vs Marseille prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Angers host Marseille in the Ligue 1 (France) on 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Angers 2–5 Marseille.
Going into the match, Angers had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 17. Marseille had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Angers's last 10 and 5 of Marseille's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Angers averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.55 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Marseille averaged 0.57 scored and 1.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.48 goals from Angers and 1.97 from Marseille. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 48%, against 28%, 25% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Angers (green) and Marseille (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 1 matches that day
- Lyon vs Nice · 18 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 2–1 - Le Havre vs Auxerre · 18 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.67 · FT 1–3 - Lorient vs Monaco · 18 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.28 - Paris FC vs Rennes · 18 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 4–3