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Ligue 1 · France
Lens vs Marseille prediction and preview
8 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC · Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lens host Marseille in the Ligue 1 (France) on 8 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Lens had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 24. Marseille had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Lens's last 10 and 4 of Marseille's last 10; 8 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lens averaged 1.60 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Marseille averaged 1.11 scored and 1.44 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.78 goals from Lens and 1.60 from Marseille. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 34%, against 41%, 24% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lens (green) and Marseille (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 1 matches that day
- Angers vs Nice · 8 Nov 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon · 8 Nov 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Le Havre vs Lorient · 8 Nov 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30 - Le Mans vs Monaco · 8 Nov 2026, 16:15 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.62 - Rennes vs Lille · 8 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC · Ligue 1
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44