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Bundesliga · Germany
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FSV Mainz 05 host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga (Germany) on 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, FSV Mainz 05 had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 32 and conceding 11. Werder Bremen had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of FSV Mainz 05's last 10 and 8 of Werder Bremen's last 10; 8 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FSV Mainz 05 averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.42 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Werder Bremen averaged 2.11 scored and 1.78 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.16 goals from FSV Mainz 05 and 1.06 from Werder Bremen. From that it rates a home win at 78%, a draw at 13% and an away win at 9%, against 55%, 24% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FSV Mainz 05 (green) and Werder Bremen (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | WLWWL | 3.20 | 1.10 | 40% | 80% |
| Werder Bremen | DDWDW | 2.10 | 1.70 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| FSV Mainz 05 Win | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Bundesliga matches that day
- Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 24 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Borussia Dortmund Win @ 1.48 - RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - 1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04 · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 - SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Bundesliga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50