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Virsliga · Latvia
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova prediction and preview
1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC · Daugava Stadium, Liepaja
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FK Liepaja host Super Nova in the Virsliga (Latvia) on 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 79% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, FK Liepaja had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 10. Super Nova had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of FK Liepaja's last 10 and 3 of Super Nova's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FK Liepaja averaged 1.87 goals scored and 0.93 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Super Nova averaged 0.79 scored and 1.29 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.49 goals from FK Liepaja and 0.69 from Super Nova. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 16%, against 63%, 21% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FK Liepaja (green) and Super Nova (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja | DWLDD | 1.50 | 1.00 | 50% | 60% |
| Super Nova | LLLWL | 0.60 | 1.30 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 Aug 2026 · Super Nova 1–2 FK Liepaja
- 12 Jun 2026 · FK Liepaja 2–1 Super Nova
- 23 Apr 2026 · Super Nova 1–2 FK Liepaja
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| FK Liepaja Win | 65% | 1.42 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.83 |
| FK Liepaja HT & FT | 44% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Virsliga matches that day
- Auda vs FS Jelgava · 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC · Virsliga
Published pick: Auda Draw No Bet @ 1.20 - BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums · 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC · Virsliga
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.20 - Ogre United vs Riga · 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC · Virsliga
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.67 - Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa · 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC · Virsliga
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.62