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Virsliga · Latvia
BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums prediction and preview
1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC · Celtnieks, Daugavpils
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
BFC Daugavpils host Tukums in the Virsliga (Latvia) on 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 80% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, BFC Daugavpils had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Tukums had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of BFC Daugavpils's last 10 and 4 of Tukums's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home BFC Daugavpils averaged 1.31 goals scored and 0.94 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Tukums averaged 0.79 scored and 2.36 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.89 goals from BFC Daugavpils and 0.61 from Tukums. From that it rates a home win at 67%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 10%, against 59%, 22% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between BFC Daugavpils (green) and Tukums (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFC Daugavpils | WWWDL | 1.20 | 0.90 | 60% | 50% |
| Tukums | DLLDL | 0.60 | 1.70 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 8 Aug 2026 · BFC Daugavpils 2–0 Tukums
- 12 Jun 2026 · Tukums 1–1 BFC Daugavpils
- 21 Apr 2026 · Tukums 1–1 BFC Daugavpils
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 80% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BFC Daugavpils Win | 62% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Virsliga matches that day
- Auda vs FS Jelgava · 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC · Virsliga
Published pick: Auda Draw No Bet @ 1.20 - FK Liepaja vs Super Nova · 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC · Virsliga
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.20 - Ogre United vs Riga · 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC · Virsliga
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.67 - Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa · 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC · Virsliga
Published pick: BTTS No @ 1.62