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Primera División · Peru
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Cajamarca host UCV Moquegua in the Primera División (Peru) on 18 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FC Cajamarca 0–1 UCV Moquegua.
Going into the match, FC Cajamarca had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 22. UCV Moquegua had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 5 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of FC Cajamarca's last 10 and 3 of UCV Moquegua's last 10; 8 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Cajamarca averaged 1.64 goals scored and 2.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home UCV Moquegua averaged 0.36 scored and 1.45 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.69 goals from FC Cajamarca and 0.87 from UCV Moquegua. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 18%, against 56%, 25% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Cajamarca (green) and UCV Moquegua (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cajamarca | DLWLW | 1.60 | 2.20 | 80% | 80% |
| UCV Moquegua | LLLLL | 0.50 | 1.90 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Apr 2026 · UCV Moquegua 2–1 FC Cajamarca
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| FC Cajamarca Win | 55% | 1.65 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primera División matches that day
- Alianza Atletico vs Universitario · 18 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos · 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau · 18 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 3–1 - FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 4–2