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Primera División · Peru
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FBC Melgar host Deportivo Garcilaso in the Primera División (Peru) on 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FBC Melgar 4–2 Deportivo Garcilaso.
Going into the match, FBC Melgar had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 10. Deportivo Garcilaso had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of FBC Melgar's last 10 and 3 of Deportivo Garcilaso's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FBC Melgar averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Deportivo Garcilaso averaged 0.55 scored and 0.91 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.27 goals from FBC Melgar and 0.96 from Deportivo Garcilaso. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 27%, against 56%, 24% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FBC Melgar (green) and Deportivo Garcilaso (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | DDWWL | 1.50 | 1.00 | 50% | 50% |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | LWLWW | 1.80 | 0.60 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 28 Apr 2026 · Deportivo Garcilaso 1–0 FBC Melgar
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| FBC Melgar Win | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primera División matches that day
- Alianza Atletico vs Universitario · 18 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua · 18 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos · 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau · 18 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 3–1