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Primera División · Peru
Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Alianza Lima host Atletico Grau in the Primera División (Peru) on 18 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Alianza Lima 3–1 Atletico Grau.
Going into the match, Alianza Lima had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 10. Atletico Grau had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Alianza Lima's last 10 and 5 of Atletico Grau's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alianza Lima averaged 1.92 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Atletico Grau averaged 0.80 scored and 1.50 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.45 goals from Alianza Lima and 0.78 from Atletico Grau. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 19%, against 72%, 19% and 10% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Alianza Lima (green) and Atletico Grau (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | WLWLD | 1.30 | 1.00 | 70% | 40% |
| Atletico Grau | DLWLW | 1.30 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Apr 2026 · Atletico Grau 0–1 Alianza Lima
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Alianza Lima Win | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primera División matches that day
- Alianza Atletico vs Universitario · 18 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua · 18 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos · 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 4–2