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Primera División · Peru
Alianza Atletico vs Universitario prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Alianza Atletico host Universitario in the Primera División (Peru) on 18 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Alianza Atletico 1–4 Universitario.
Going into the match, Alianza Atletico had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 26 and conceding 13. Universitario had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Alianza Atletico's last 10 and 7 of Universitario's last 10; 8 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alianza Atletico averaged 1.80 goals scored and 1.07 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Universitario averaged 1.21 scored and 1.36 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.03 goals from Alianza Atletico and 1.57 from Universitario. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 29%, against 33%, 29% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 88%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Alianza Atletico (green) and Universitario (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico | WWWWL | 2.60 | 1.30 | 90% | 80% |
| Universitario | DLWDW | 1.90 | 1.70 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Apr 2026 · Universitario 1–2 Alianza Atletico
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.83 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primera División matches that day
- FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua · 18 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos · 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau · 18 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 3–1 - FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 17 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 4–2