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Serie D - Girone A · Italy
Derthona vs Asti prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Derthona host Asti in the Serie D - Girone A (Italy) on 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Derthona 1–1 Asti.
Going into the match, Derthona had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Asti had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Derthona's last 10 and 4 of Asti's last 10; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Derthona averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Asti averaged 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.20 goals from Derthona and 0.98 from Asti. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 29%, against 42%, 29% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Derthona (green) and Asti (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 69% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.31 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
| Derthona Win | 41% | 2.15 |
| Derthona HT & FT | 29% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie D - Girone A matches that day
- Biellese vs Valenzana · 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Serie D - Girone A
Published pick: Biellese Win @ 1.57 - Ligorna vs Bra · 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · Serie D - Girone A
Published pick: Ligorna Win @ 1.62 · FT 1–2 - Borgosesia vs Imperia · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie D - Girone A
Published pick: Double Chance 1X - Celle Varazze vs Gozzano · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie D - Girone A
Published pick: Double Chance X2 - Saluzzo vs Chisola · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie D - Girone A
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.36 · FT 0–3 - Sanremese vs Sestri Levante · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie D - Girone A
Published pick: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 - Fezzanese vs Millesimo · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie D - Girone A
Published pick: Double Chance 12 @ 1.25 · FT 0–4 - Lascaris vs Alessandria · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Serie D - Girone A
Published pick: Double Chance X2