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UEFA Champions League · International
Bayern München vs Arsenal prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bayern München host Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League (International) on 21 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bayern München 2–2 Arsenal.
Going into the match, Bayern München had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 36 and conceding 10. Arsenal had won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Bayern München's last 10 and 3 of Arsenal's last 10; 9 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bayern München averaged 4.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Arsenal averaged 1.58 scored and 0.92 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.91 goals from Bayern München and 1.18 from Arsenal. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 22%, against 46%, 24% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bayern München (green) and Arsenal (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | WDDWW | 3.60 | 1.00 | 70% | 90% |
| Arsenal | WWWLW | 1.90 | 0.70 | 30% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other UEFA Champions League matches that day
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Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.75 · FT 2–3 - Como vs Manchester United · 21 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 4–1 - Lille vs Galatasaray · 21 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC · UEFA Champions League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 · FT 2–4