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Serie C - Girone C · Italy
Bari vs Crotone prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bari host Crotone in the Serie C - Girone C (Italy) on 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bari 0–0 Crotone.
Going into the match, Bari had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 7. Crotone had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Bari's last 10 and 6 of Crotone's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bari averaged 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Crotone averaged 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.62 goals from Bari and 0.52 from Crotone. From that it rates a home win at 64%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 11%, against 53%, 26% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bari (green) and Crotone (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Bari Win | 54% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie C - Girone C matches that day
- Barletta vs AZ Picerno · 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Serie C - Girone C
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.25 - Sorrento vs Casertana · 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Serie C - Girone C
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36 - Audace Cerignola vs Savoia · 18 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Serie C - Girone C
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 4–0 - Cavese vs Casarano · 18 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Serie C - Girone C
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 5–2 - Cosenza vs Team Altamura · 18 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · Serie C - Girone C
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.40