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FAW Championship · Wales
Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Baglan Dragons host Aberystwyth Town in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Baglan Dragons had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 10. Aberystwyth Town had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 27 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Baglan Dragons's last 10 and 6 of Aberystwyth Town's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Baglan Dragons averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Aberystwyth Town averaged 2.40 scored and 1.60 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.78 goals from Baglan Dragons and 1.39 from Aberystwyth Town. From that it rates a home win at 20%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 50%, against 24%, 24% and 52% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 42%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Baglan Dragons (green) and Aberystwyth Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baglan Dragons | WDWLL | 1.50 | 1.00 | 70% | 60% |
| Aberystwyth Town | WLWDW | 2.70 | 1.00 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 77% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Aberystwyth Town Win | 52% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Aberystwyth Town HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other FAW Championship matches that day
- Bangor City 1876 FC vs Ruthin Town · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Buckley Town vs Holyhead Hotspur · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals - Caersws vs Guilsfield · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.46 - Llanuwchllyn vs Bala Town · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Penrhyncoch vs Mold Alexandra · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Mold Alexandra Win @ 1.44 - Porthmadog vs Brickfield Rangers · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.52 - Rhyl vs Newtown AFC · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.50 - Pontardawe Town vs Ynyshir Albions · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Double Chance 1X - Swansea University vs Treowen Stars · 24 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · FAW Championship
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals