Home › League stats › J2 League › Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu
J2 League · Japan
Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Albirex Niigata host Sagan Tosu in the J2 League (Japan) on 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Albirex Niigata 2–1 Sagan Tosu.
Going into the match, Albirex Niigata had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 19. Sagan Tosu had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Albirex Niigata's last 10 and 4 of Sagan Tosu's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Albirex Niigata averaged 1.33 goals scored and 0.93 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Sagan Tosu averaged 0.83 scored and 1.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.17 goals from Albirex Niigata and 1.56 from Sagan Tosu. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 45%, against 27%, 29% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Albirex Niigata (green) and Sagan Tosu (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albirex Niigata | LDWLD | 1.40 | 1.90 | 70% | 70% |
| Sagan Tosu | WWWLD | 0.90 | 1.10 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 73% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Sagan Tosu Win | 44% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other J2 League matches that day
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Blaublitz Akita · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.28 · FT 2–1 - Tokushima Vortis vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.25 · FT 0–1 - Jubilo Iwata vs Oita Trinita · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22 · FT 0–0 - Omiya Ardija vs Kataller Toyama · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 · FT 0–3 - Vegalta Sendai vs Imabari · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 3–1 - Ventforet Kofu vs Yokohama FC · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–3 - Shonan Bellmare vs Iwaki · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30 · FT 1–1 - Tochigi City vs Fujieda MYFC · 21 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 · FT 2–2 - Montedio Yamagata vs Consadole Sapporo · 21 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC · J2 League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 · FT 0–2