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Super League · China
Yunnan Yukun vs Chongqing Tongliang Long prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Yunnan Yukun host Chongqing Tongliang Long in the Super League (China) on 17 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Yunnan Yukun 1–1 Chongqing Tongliang Long.
Going into the match, Yunnan Yukun had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 26. Chongqing Tongliang Long had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Yunnan Yukun's last 10 and 4 of Chongqing Tongliang Long's last 10; 8 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Yunnan Yukun averaged 2.15 goals scored and 1.62 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Chongqing Tongliang Long averaged 0.85 scored and 1.23 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.85 goals from Yunnan Yukun and 1.22 from Chongqing Tongliang Long. From that it rates a home win at 51%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 24%, against 57%, 23% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Yunnan Yukun (green) and Chongqing Tongliang Long (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yunnan Yukun | LWWLD | 2.30 | 2.60 | 60% | 80% |
| Chongqing Tongliang Long | DLLDL | 0.70 | 1.30 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 Sep 2026 · Yunnan Yukun 1–0 Chongqing Tongliang Long
- 20 May 2026 · Chongqing Tongliang Long 0–0 Yunnan Yukun
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| Yunnan Yukun Win | 59% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Super League matches that day
- Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Super League
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.33 - Qingdao Jonoon vs Shenyang Urban · 17 Oct 2026, 11:35 UTC · Super League
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.48 - Dalian Zhixing vs Sichuan Jiuniu · 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · Super League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50