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Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
Welling United vs Burgess Hill Town prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Welling United host Burgess Hill Town in the Non League Premier - Isthmian (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.61, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Welling United 4–2 Burgess Hill Town.
Going into the match, Welling United had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 14. Burgess Hill Town had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Welling United's last 10 and 8 of Burgess Hill Town's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Welling United averaged 2.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Burgess Hill Town averaged 0.86 scored and 1.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.85 goals from Welling United and 1.34 from Burgess Hill Town. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 27%, against 49%, 24% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Welling United (green) and Burgess Hill Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welling United | LWWDL | 1.50 | 1.40 | 60% | 50% |
| Burgess Hill Town | WDWWL | 2.20 | 1.10 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 76% | 1.21 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.48 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.61 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Welling United Win | 49% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.08 |
| Welling United HT & FT | 29% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Welling United form and statistics
- Burgess Hill Town form and statistics
- Non League Premier - Isthmian statistics
Other Non League Premier - Isthmian matches that day
- Aveley vs Chatham Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.52 - Cheshunt vs Whitehawk · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Published pick: Cheshunt Win @ 1.57 · FT 1–1 - Dulwich Hamlet vs Carshalton Athletic · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.51 · FT 2–2 - Lewes vs Maldon & Tiptree · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Published pick: Lewes Win @ 1.53 · FT 1–1 - Three Bridges vs Enfield Town · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Published pick: Enfield Town Win @ 1.48 - Whyteleafe vs Dartford · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.58 - Wingate & Finchley vs Stanway Rovers · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Non League Premier - Isthmian
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.40