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Serie A · Brazil
Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Vasco DA Gama host Corinthians in the Serie A (Brazil) on 24 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Vasco DA Gama Win — Vasco DA Gama to win. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Vasco DA Gama had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 7. Corinthians had won 0, drawn 2 and lost 8 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Vasco DA Gama's last 10 and 8 of Corinthians's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Vasco DA Gama averaged 1.37 goals scored and 0.89 conceded across 19 matches; away from home Corinthians averaged 1.06 scored and 1.28 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.57 goals from Vasco DA Gama and 0.80 from Corinthians. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 18%, against 56%, 26% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Vasco DA Gama (green) and Corinthians (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama | LLWDW | 1.30 | 0.70 | 30% | 40% |
| Corinthians | DLLLL | 0.80 | 1.90 | 80% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Apr 2026 · Corinthians 1–0 Vasco DA Gama
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Vasco DA Gama Win | 56% | 1.70 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Santos vs Bahia · 25 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense · 24 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.25 - Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino · 24 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44