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Serie A · Brazil
Santos vs Bahia prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Santos host Bahia in the Serie A (Brazil) on 25 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Santos had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 14. Bahia had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Santos's last 10 and 5 of Bahia's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Santos averaged 1.60 goals scored and 1.05 conceded across 20 matches; away from home Bahia averaged 1.31 scored and 1.62 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.90 goals from Santos and 1.19 from Bahia. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 23%, against 49%, 26% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Santos (green) and Bahia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Apr 2026 · Bahia 2–2 Santos
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense · 24 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.25 - Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino · 24 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians · 24 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Vasco DA Gama Win @ 1.70