Home › League stats › Serie A › Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense
Serie A · Brazil
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chapecoense-sc host Fluminense in the Serie A (Brazil) on 24 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Chapecoense-sc had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 20. Fluminense had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Chapecoense-sc's last 10 and 5 of Fluminense's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chapecoense-sc averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.86 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Fluminense averaged 0.94 scored and 1.22 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.07 goals from Chapecoense-sc and 1.66 from Fluminense. From that it rates a home win at 23%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 50%, against 21%, 26% and 53% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Chapecoense-sc (green) and Fluminense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | LLLDD | 1.10 | 2.00 | 70% | 60% |
| Fluminense | WLLLW | 1.50 | 1.10 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Apr 2026 · Fluminense 2–1 Chapecoense-sc
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.35 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Fluminense Win | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie A matches that day
- Santos vs Bahia · 25 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino · 24 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians · 24 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC · Serie A
Published pick: Vasco DA Gama Win @ 1.70