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La Liga · Spain
Valencia vs Villarreal prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Valencia host Villarreal in the La Liga (Spain) on 24 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Valencia had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 16. Villarreal had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Valencia's last 10 and 7 of Villarreal's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Valencia averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Villarreal averaged 1.56 scored and 1.63 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from Valencia and 1.67 from Villarreal. From that it rates a home win at 23%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 51%, against 29%, 27% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Valencia (green) and Villarreal (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | DDLWL | 0.60 | 1.60 | 30% | 40% |
| Villarreal | LDWLW | 1.70 | 1.70 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other La Liga matches that day
- Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna · 24 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Racing Santander vs Espanyol · 24 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Rayo Vallecano vs Elche · 24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.25