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La Liga · Spain
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Atletico Madrid host Deportivo La Coruna in the La Liga (Spain) on 24 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Atletico Madrid had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 9. Deportivo La Coruna had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Atletico Madrid's last 10 and 9 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Atletico Madrid averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Deportivo La Coruna averaged 1.57 scored and 1.00 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.71 goals from Atletico Madrid and 0.78 from Deportivo La Coruna. From that it rates a home win at 58%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 16%, against 75%, 17% and 9% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Atletico Madrid (green) and Deportivo La Coruna (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | DWWWW | 1.90 | 0.90 | 50% | 70% |
| Deportivo La Coruna | DLLDD | 1.50 | 1.60 | 90% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Atletico Madrid Win | 74% | 1.27 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Atletico Madrid 1st Half Win | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.75 |
| Atletico Madrid HT & FT | 54% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other La Liga matches that day
- Valencia vs Villarreal · 24 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Racing Santander vs Espanyol · 24 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - Rayo Vallecano vs Elche · 24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · La Liga
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.25